China vs India: As China, Japan and Korea Age, Will India’s Demographic Dividend Make It the World’s Next Powerhouse?

New Delhi/Beijing: As major Asian economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea grapple with rapidly ageing populations, a growing global debate is taking shape: can India emerge as the world’s next major economic and strategic powerhouse? Demographic shifts, manufacturing trends, and digital expansion are increasingly placing India at the centre of this discussion.

China and India remain Asia’s two most influential nations, each with a distinct global identity shaped by population size and economic scale. For decades, China has dominated global manufacturing and supply chains. However, recent indicators suggest that China is facing structural demographic challenges, even as its economic growth shows signs of slowing toward the end of 2025.

China’s ageing challenge

China’s population has begun to decline, with a shrinking workforce and rising elderly dependency. Policymakers have been attempting to reverse this trend through measures aimed at encouraging childbirth, following years of strict population control policies.

According to analysts, China’s ageing population could put long-term pressure on productivity, social welfare systems, and economic momentum. Some reports from within China suggest policy discussions around discouraging contraceptive use and encouraging family growth, highlighting the seriousness of Beijing’s demographic concerns.

Japan and South Korea are facing similar challenges, with both countries recording some of the lowest fertility rates in the world, further reinforcing the broader trend of demographic ageing across East Asia.

India’s demographic advantage

In contrast, India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous country, and—crucially—has one of the youngest populations among major economies. A large working-age population is seen as a potential driver of sustained economic growth, provided sufficient jobs and skill development opportunities are created.

Economists note that India’s demographic dividend could give it a significant advantage over ageing economies if supported by reforms in education, healthcare, and labour markets.

Manufacturing and digital momentum

India’s position in global manufacturing has strengthened in recent years, with multinational companies diversifying supply chains and expanding operations in the country. Initiatives aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing, electronics production, and semiconductor ecosystems have increased India’s appeal as an alternative manufacturing hub.

At the same time, India’s rapid progress in digitalisation, including digital payments, public digital infrastructure, and technology-driven governance, has enhanced its global standing. Analysts say this combination of youth, technology, and manufacturing capacity could reshape Asia’s economic balance over the next two decades.

China pushes back on the narrative

Despite these developments, Chinese analysts continue to argue that China’s economic fundamentals remain strong. KG Mao, an analyst at the Chinese International Cooperation Centre, recently sparked debate by asserting that China’s industrial base, technological depth, and global trade integration still give it a decisive edge over India.

According to Mao, China’s challenges should not be mistaken for decline, but rather viewed as a transition phase in a mature economy.

A shifting global balance?

Experts say the future may not be about one country overtaking another outright, but about a rebalancing of power in Asia. While China remains a manufacturing and export giant, India’s demographic strength and digital expansion could make it an increasingly influential force in global economics and geopolitics.

As ageing reshapes East Asia and India continues to invest in growth and reform, the question is no longer whether India will matter—but how fast it can convert its demographic advantage into lasting global leadership.